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Shell Scenarios

Data Source: EFI EUROFOREST Portal
TitleShell Scenarios
DescriptionThe Scenarios ask “what if?” questions and aim to encourage leaders to consider events that may only be remote possibilities. The "New Lens" Scenarios were published in 2013. The scenarios explore two possible ways the 21st century could unfold, with dramatically different implications for society and the world’s energy system. Called "Mountains" and "Oceans", the scenarios provide a detailed analysis of current trends and their likely trajectory into the future. "Mountains" imagines a world where government policy significantly influences society and largely shapes energy and environmental pathways. Cleaner-burning natural gas becomes the backbone of the energy system, mostly replacing coal for power generation and seeing wider use in transport. "Oceans" envisions a landscape shaped by market forces and civil society. Public resistance and the slow adoption of policies and technology limits the development of nuclear power and restricts the growth of natural gas. Coal remains widely used in power generation until mid-century. In 2011, two scenarios "Dynamics as Usual", and "The Spirit of the Coming Age", contrast a progression in energy use from coal to gas to renewables, against the potential for a hydrogen-based economy. In 2008, Shell published the Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050. These scenarios addressed the challenges facing the world and influenced Shell's strategic direction. Shell's Energy Scenarios "Scramble" and "Blueprints" remain a credible vision of what may lie ahead. "Signals & Signposts" updates the 2008 energy scenarios by taking into account the impact of the global economic and financial crisis.
Keywordsfutures; scenarios; energy consumption; economic environment; energy environment; climate; environment; technology and innovation; fossil fuel; renewable energy
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 Published: August 12 2011 | Last updated: March 6 2017